ラリーのリスクの高いビジネス：オラクルが示すAIバブルの行方

Elizabeth Lopatto

is a reporter who writes about tech, money, and human behavior. She joined The Verge in 2014 as science editor. Previously, she was a reporter at Bloomberg.

If you want to know whether the AI bubble is bursting, there’s only one publicly traded company that will tell you: Oracle.

That’s right, the database company. Oracle has burned its boats and pivoted to AI, but not in any kind of usual way. It is not a foundation model builder like OpenAI or Anthropic, obviously. It’s not quite a neocloud, though it has entered the same bare-metal business as CoreWeave. It is a software-as-a-service company that has made an audacious bet on a very specific future version of AI as Oracle’s traditional business has gracefully declined. It is significantly older than any of its AI competitors, save Microsoft, and it has decided its future involvesan enormous compute deal with OpenAI, a company that does not make money.

Whether OpenAI is good for its commitments to Oracle depends a lot on how much money it can raise and how quickly it can become profitable. The risk for Oracle is that it may be sinking a lot of money into building data centers for OpenAI, only for OpenAI to be unable to pay Oracle the $300 billion it agreed to in their contract. Oracle and OpenAI did not respond to requests for comment.

But the OpenAI play — and the pivot to AI generally — suggests a specific vision: The key place to make money isn’t training foundation models. The real money is inference, or using AI models to output results on data that isn’t in the training set. So the company has looked at some startups’ businesses and decided that they are actually just features that can be added to Oracle’s existing capabilities — which is pretty much what Oracle has been up to for the entirety of its existence.

Oracle, of course, is already an enterprise business, so it has the existing relationships and large salesforce to go out there and sell its vision, one that suggests there isn’t much room for the AI stack to fragment.

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