2010年のビジョンはどれほど近いか？

How close are we to a vision for 2010? – Terence Eden’s Blog Theme Switcher: 🌒 Dark 🌞 Light 📰 eInk 💻 xterm 🥴 Drunk 👻 Nude ♻️ Reset Twenty five years ago today, the EU's IST advisory group published a paper about the future of "Ambient Intelligence". Way before the world got distracted with cryptoscams and AI slop, we genuinely thought that computers would be so pervasive and well-integrated that the dream of "Ubiquitous Computing" would become a reality.

The ISTAG published an optimistic paper called "Scenarios for ambient intelligence in 2010". It's a brilliant look at what the future might have been. Let's go through some of the scenarios and see how close 2026 is to 2000's vision of 2010.

Scenario 1: ‘Maria’ – Road Warrior (close-term future)

Our titular heroine steps off a long haul flight into a foreign country.

she knows that she can travel much lighter than less than a decade ago, when she had to carry a collection of different so-called personal computing devices (laptop PC, mobile phone, electronic organisers and sometimes beamers and printers). Her computing system for this trip is reduced to one highly personalised communications device, her ‘P–Com’ that she wears on her wrist.

Well… OK! Not a bad start. You probably wouldn't want everything controlled by your smart watch - but the mobile is a good substitute. Although wireless video casting works, you'd probably want a trusty USB-C just to make sure.

she is able to stroll through immigration without stopping because her P-Comm is dealing with the ID checks as she walks.

We're getting closer to digital ID. But outside of a few experiments, there's no international consensus. However, every modern passport has an NFC chip which can be read by most airports. You still need to hold your passport on the reader, but it's usually quicker than queuing for a human.

The car opens as she approaches. It starts at the press of a button: she doesn’t need a key. She still has to drive the car but she is supported in her journey downtown to the conference centre-hotel by the traffic guidance system that had been launched by the city government as part of the ‘AmI-Nation’ initiative two years earlier.

Lots of cars now have wireless entry and are button controlled. Rental cars often have mobile app unlocking.

The traffic guidance is not provided by local governments. A mixture of international satellites provide positioning information, and a bunch of private companies provide traffic guidance.

Downtown traffic has been a legendary nightmare in this city for many
years, and draconian steps were taken to limit access to the city centre. But Maria has priority access rights into the central cordon because she has a reservation in the car park of the hotel. Central access however comes at a premium price, in Maria’s case it is embedded in a deal negotiated between her personal agent and the transaction agents of the car-rental and hotel chains

Ah! The dream of personal agents. Not even close.

In the car Maria’s teenage daughter comes through on the audio system. Amanda has detected from ‘En Casa’ system at home that her mother is in a place that supports direct voice contact.

Hurrah for Bluetooth! Every car supports that now. Presence and location sensing is also common. Although the idea of a teenager willingly making a voice call is, sadly, a fantasy.

Her room adopts her ‘personality’ as she enters. The room temperature, default lighting and a range of video and music choices are displayed on the video wall.

Pffft! Nope. But do people really want this? The music and video are stored on her phone, so there's no need to transmit private data to a hotel.

Using voice commands she adjusts the light levels and commands a bath. Then she calls up her daughter on the video wall, while talking she uses a traditional remote control system to browse through a set of webcast local news bulletins from back home that her daughter tells her about. They watch them together.

Do you want an always-on Alexa in your hotel room? We have the technology, but we seem to shun in outside of specific scenarios.

We still have traditional remotes for browsing, and how lovely that they predicted the rise of simultaneous viewing!

Later on she ‘localises’ her presentation with the help of an agent that is specialised in advising on local preferences (colour schemes, the use of language).

I'd say we're there with a mixture of templates and LLMs. Translation and localisation is good enough.

She stores the presentation on the secure server at headquarters back in Europe. In the hotel’s seminar room where the sales pitch is take place, she will be able to call down an encrypted version of the presentation and give it a post presentation decrypt life of 1.5 minutes

Yup! Most things live in the cloud. Access controls are a thing. Whether people can be bothered to use them is another matter!

As she enters the meeting she raises communications access thresholds to block