AI需要増大でメモリ不足深刻化、2028年まで供給逼迫見通し

Samsung Electronics' chief financial officer said that shortages of microchips used to store digital data are likely to deepen in 2027 and remain tight through 2028.

The crunch has been nicknamed "RAMaggedon" after the components known as RAM, or "random-access memory".

It is being caused by chipmakers pivoting to producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — a more advanced type of computer memory that is in huge demand to help train and run AI tools.

The products on display at In-Technology Services — one of many compact vendors crammed into Hong Kong's Wan Chai Computer Centre — are intended to inform customers who "don't know what happened," manager Wade Lam told AFP.

The centre's shops sell all kinds of tech equipment, from computer parts to gadgets and games consoles.

Ken Tam, manager of Videocom Computer, which specialises in custom-built PCs, said business has halved since prices began rising in September.

Sixteen gigabytes of RAM used to cost HK$300–400 (€35–45) but the price has now reached HK$1,500, he said.

"When it suddenly gets so expensive, customers have a psychological barrier," Tam told AFP.

"If they need it, they will buy it," but otherwise they will wait, or "lower their standards" and buy a less high-performing memory chip, he said.

Chinese competition

Analyst Ellie Wang at the Taiwan-based market research firm TrendForce said memory prices for PCs and smartphones were around five to six times higher than a year ago.

The AI boom has brought enormous profits and soaring share prices for the world's three largest memory chipmakers: South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, along with US giant Micron.

In fourth place is ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), which became mainland China's most valuable company on Monday when it made its market debut in Shanghai — another sign of how red-hot the sector has become.

CXMT, as a relative newcomer, "remains in a follower position regarding leading-edge technologies," James Zhao, senior principal analyst at Omdia, told AFP.

HBM is used in data centre servers to support other powerful chips — such as those made by US titan Nvidia — that perform the extremely complex calculations required by AI systems.

But when it comes to conventional RAM, and a type used in computers called DRAM, "the current supply-constrained market environment" could give CXMT "late-mover advantages", he said.

At a shopping centre in another part of Hong Kong, customer Henry Wong, an investment banker, said he had chosen to upgrade the RAM in an older laptop instead of buying a new one with even better specifications.

"After upgrading the memory, I found it ran really smoothly, and I stopped wanting to buy a new computer," he told AFP.

Rising costs

Carmakers say they are facing rising costs for in-vehicle computer systems, which could also soon push up the price of new vehicles.

In Tokyo's tech hub of Akihabara, Charles Brousse, a 30-year-old graphic designer and custom PC builder from Belgium, said prices for RAM, graphics cards and motherboards had reached "ridiculous levels".

For his "PC & Chill" service, Brousse does not buy parts to pre-build machines because it is too expensive. Instead, he requires clients to purchase their own components, which he then assembles.

The chip shortage is pushing people to buy cheaper laptops instead of desktops, which can last up to a decade, said Brousse, who was in Tokyo on his honeymoon.

"I'm not sure that's a good thing; people end up buying products with shorter lifespans, which fuels a cycle of consumption."

Brousse added that the fact it is being driven by the "speculative bubble" of AI is also frustrating, "because I'm a graphic designer by trade, so AI has a real impact on my profession."